Comparison of calculated risk and outcomes for the NSQIP risk calculator in patients with ovarian cancer (n = 261)
| Did not have an event | Had an event | OR (95% CI)* | c-statistic* | Brier score† | |||
| Outcome | n (%) | Median risk (min–max) | n (%) | Median risk (Mmin–max) | |||
| Serious complication | 204 (78.2) | 14.2 (11.5–18.0) | 57 (21.8) | 15.5 (11.3–19.6) | 1.04 (0.98 to 1.10) | 0.555 | 0.171 |
| Pneumonia | 256 (98.1) | 1.2 (0.8–2.2) | 5 (1.9) | 1.9 (1.9–2.6) | 1.21 (0.64 to 2.29) | 0.616 | 0.019 |
| SSI | 226 (86.6) | 6.6 (5.7–8.2) | 35 (13.4) | 7.4 (6.1–11.6) | 1.19 (1.06 to 1.34)‡ | 0.628 | 0.117 |
| UTI | 249 (95.4) | 3.2 (2.6–3.5) | 12 (4.6) | 3.4 (2.2–4.1) | 1.03 (0.53 to 1.99) | 0.529 | 0.044 |
| VTE/PE | 252 (96.6) | 3.3 (2.7–4.0) | 9 (3.4) | 2.9 (2.9–3.1) | 0.75 (0.36 to 1.56) | 0.573 | 0.034 |
| Reoperation | 257 (98.5) | 2.4 (2.0–3.1) | 4 (1.5) | 3.5 (2.5–4.9) | 1.35 (0.81 to 2.26) | 0.713 | 0.015 |
| Readmission | 236 (90.4) | 10.9 (8.3–13.4) | 25 (9.6) | 10.6 (10.1–14.1) | 1.07 (0.95 to 1.21) | 0.548 | 0.087 |
| Prolonged LOS§ | 200 (76.6) | 5.5 (4.5–6.5) | 61 (23.4) | 6.5 (5.0–8.0) | 1.39 (1.17 to 1.66)‡ | 0.645 | 0.206 |
*c-statistic: range 0.5–1.0, where 0.5 is no better than chance and 1.0 indicates that the model perfectly predicts the outcome. Models are considered reasonable when >0.7, and strong when >0.8.
†The Brier score describes the mean squared differences between the predicted risk and actual outcome. The Brier score is 0 when the model perfectly predicts the outcome.
‡P value <0.05 for all outcomes.
§>75th centile or >6 days.
LOS, length of stay; SSI, surgical site infection; UTI, urinary tract infection; VTE/PE, venous thromboembolic event/pulmonary embolus.