Table 3

Comparison of calculated risk and outcomes for the NSQIP risk calculator in patients with ovarian cancer (n = 261)

 Did not have an event Had an event OR(95% CI)* c-statistic* Brier score† Outcome n (%) Median risk(min–max) n (%) Median risk(Mmin–max) Serious complication 204 (78.2) 14.2 (11.5–18.0) 57 (21.8) 15.5 (11.3–19.6) 1.04 (0.98 to 1.10) 0.555 0.171 Pneumonia 256 (98.1) 1.2 (0.8–2.2) 5 (1.9) 1.9 (1.9–2.6) 1.21 (0.64 to 2.29) 0.616 0.019 SSI 226 (86.6) 6.6 (5.7–8.2) 35 (13.4) 7.4 (6.1–11.6) 1.19 (1.06 to 1.34)‡ 0.628 0.117 UTI 249 (95.4) 3.2 (2.6–3.5) 12 (4.6) 3.4 (2.2–4.1) 1.03 (0.53 to 1.99) 0.529 0.044 VTE/PE 252 (96.6) 3.3 (2.7–4.0) 9 (3.4) 2.9 (2.9–3.1) 0.75 (0.36 to 1.56) 0.573 0.034 Reoperation 257 (98.5) 2.4 (2.0–3.1) 4 (1.5) 3.5 (2.5–4.9) 1.35 (0.81 to 2.26) 0.713 0.015 Readmission 236 (90.4) 10.9 (8.3–13.4) 25 (9.6) 10.6 (10.1–14.1) 1.07 (0.95 to 1.21) 0.548 0.087 Prolonged LOS§ 200 (76.6) 5.5 (4.5–6.5) 61 (23.4) 6.5 (5.0–8.0) 1.39 (1.17 to 1.66)‡ 0.645 0.206
• *c-statistic: range 0.5–1.0, where 0.5 is no better than chance and 1.0 indicates that the model perfectly predicts the outcome. Models are considered reasonable when >0.7, and strong when >0.8.

• †The Brier score describes the mean squared differences between the predicted risk and actual outcome. The Brier score is 0 when the model perfectly predicts the outcome.

• ‡P value <0.05 for all outcomes.

• §>75th centile or >6 days.

• LOS, length of stay; SSI, surgical site infection; UTI, urinary tract infection; VTE/PE, venous thromboembolic event/pulmonary embolus.