Article Text

Download PDFPDF
23 Prediction model of long-term survival after epithelial ovarian cancer surgery
  1. Seung-Hyuk Shim1,
  2. A Jin Lee1,
  3. Eun Bi Jang1,
  4. Shin Wha Lee2,
  5. Hee Seung Kim3,
  6. Sung Jong Lee4,
  7. Suk Jun Chang5 and
  8. Chel Hun Choi6
  1. 1Konkuk University Hospital, Seoul, South Korea
  2. 2Asan Medical Center, Seoul, South Korea
  3. 3Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea
  4. 4Seoul St. Mary’s Hospital, Seoul, South Korea
  5. 5Ajou University, Suwon, South Korea
  6. 6Samsung Medical Center, Seoul, South Korea


Introduction/Background The prognosis of patients with epithelial ovarian cancer is primarily assessed according to the International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) staging; however, the heterogeneous nature of ovarian cancer and individual clinical course make it difficult to predict individual survival and prognosis. The aim of this study is to predict long-term survival beyond 5 years in patients with advanced epithelial ovarian cancer who have undergone cytoreductive surgery and first-line platinum-based chemotherapy.

Methodology We retrospectively analyzed data from patients with FIGO stage III or IV epithelial ovarian cancer diagnosed at seven institutions from 2013 to 2019. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to develop predictive models for overall survival. Model performance was assessed using discrimination and calibration.

Results The study included 1387 patients with epithelial ovarian cancer diagnosed as FIGO stage III-IV who received platinum-based chemotherapy after surgery. With a median follow-up time of 45 (6–144) months, 345 (24.9%) patients survived 5 years or more. The six factors included in the predicted nomogram were age, type of primary surgery, residual disease status, histology, FIGO stage, and BRCA mutation status. The nomogram was internally validated with cross-validation and showed good predictive accuracy for 5-year survival by incorporating these variables (corrected concordance index = 0.668; 95% CI = 0.657–0.682).

Conclusion A nomogram that predicts 5-year survival after primary surgery in patients with advanced ovarian cancer may be useful for patient counseling, preoperative planning, and postoperative care and follow-up.

Disclosures None.

Statistics from

Request Permissions

If you wish to reuse any or all of this article please use the link below which will take you to the Copyright Clearance Center’s RightsLink service. You will be able to get a quick price and instant permission to reuse the content in many different ways.