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2022-RA-1694-ESGO A dynamic, risk-based determination of follow-upintervalsfor advanced epithelial ovarian cancer based on serum ca125 tests
  1. Sokbom Kang1 and
  2. Yeon Jee Lee2
  1. 1National Cancer Center, Korea, Goyang, Korea, Republic of
  2. 2National Cancer Center, Goyang, Korea, Republic of


Introduction/Background By analyzing the longitudinal data of serum CA (cancer antigen) 125 data during follow-up, we developed a framework for the dynamic determination of the follow-up interval based on serum biomarkers.

Methodology The longitudinal data of CA125 tests from routine 3-month follow-up visits of advanced epithelial ovarian cancer were retrospectively retrieved. A repeated-measure analysis using mixed model effects was developed to predict the probability of short-term recurrence (within 3 months and 6 months). The probability was calculated for the three predefined risk groups: serum CA125 levels lower than 10 U/ml, between 10 and 20 U/ml, and higher than 20 U/ml.

Results The 346 CA125 test results from 115 patients were subjected to longitudinal analysis. For results less than 10 U/ml, the predicted probabilities that the patient would experience recurrent disease within 3 and 6 months were 4.1% and 14.0%, respectively. For results between 10 U/ml and 20 U/ml, the predicted probabilities were 9.8% and 40.5%, respectively. For results greater than 20 U/ml, the predicted probabilities increased to 40.3% and 61.0%, respectively. Multivariate analysis indicated that the current CA125 level was the sole factor significantly associated with recurrence both within 3 months and within 6 months (all P < 0.001).

Abstract 2022-RA-1694-ESGO Figure 1

Conclusion We developed a risk model to predict the short-term recurrence risk of ovarian cancer and proposed a framework for the dynamic determination of the follow-up interval based on the results of CA125 testing.

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