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Can we predict a high risk group in stage I epithelial ovarian cancer?
  1. C. B. Finn*,
  2. J. Dunn,
  3. E. J. Buxton*,
  4. D. M. Luesley* and
  5. M. Shafi*
  1. * Academic Department of Obstetrics & Gynaecology, Dudley Road Hospital, Birmingham and
  2. Cancer Research Campaign Clinical Trials Unit, Queen Elizabeth Hospital, Birmingham, UK
  1. Address for correspondence: Catherine B. Finn, Senior Registrar, Birmingham Maternity Hospital, Edgbaston, Birmingham B15 2TG, UK.


A retrospective review of 373 patients with stage I invasive epithelial ovarian cancer was undertaken over a 5 year period to develop a model to characterize the patient at high risk. Actuarial 5-year survival was 70%. To identify factors with an independent effect on 5-year survival, a logistic regression analysis was performed. Adjuvant chemotherapy, histologic grade and peritoneal washings, were identified as independent variables. A model to determine the predictivity of survival was created using a learning sample (2/3 of the cases) and the model was then used to reclassify a validation sample (1/3 of the cases). Using all the independent variables, outcome was predicted correctly in 78% of cases. However the model failed to improve identification of those at risk of recurrence (specificity of 53%).

  • epithlial ovarian cancer
  • high risk
  • stage I.

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