Article Text

Download PDFPDF
EP1253 A novel model to predict cancer-specific survival in patients with early-stage uterine papillary serous carcinoma (UPSC)
  1. C Lihua and
  2. C Xi
  1. Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center, Shanghai, China


Introduction/Background Uterine papillary serous carcinoma (UPSC) has aggressively biological behavior and leads to poor prognosis. However, clinicopathologic risk factors to predict cancer-specific survival of patients with stage I-II UPSC were still unclear. This study was undertaken to develop a prediction model of survival in patients with early-stage UPSC.

Methodology Using SEER database, we identified 964 patients with FIGO stage I-II UPSC who underwent at least hysterectomy between 2004–2015. Using proportional subdistribution hazards regression to compare cancer-specific death (CSD) for all patients. Based on the results of univariate and multivariate analysis, the variables were selected to construct a predictive model; and the prediction results of the model were visualized by nomogram to predict the cancer-specific survival and the response to adjuvant therapy of stage I-II UPSC patients.

Results The median age of the cohort is 67 years old. 17.1% (n=165) of the patients died of UPSC, while 8.6% of the patients died from other causes. On multivariate analysis, age (HR=1.45, P=0.021), tumor size (HR=1.81, P=0.014) and number of regional nodes removed (HR=0.52, P=0.003) were significantly associated with cumulative incidence of CSD. In the age≥67 years cohort, FIGO stage I-II was a risk factor for CSD (HR=1.83, P=0.036), and ≥ 10 lymph nodes removed was a protective factor (HR=0.50, P=0.01). Both combination of adjuvant chemotherapy and radiotherapy and adjuvant chemotherapy alone decreased the CSD of patients with stage I-II UPSC older than 67 years (HR=0.47, P=0.022; HR=0.52, P=0.024, respectively). The prediction model had great risk stratification ability as high-risk group had higher cumulative incidence of CSD than low-risk group (P<0.001). In the high-risk group, patients with adjuvant chemoradiotherapy had improved CSD compared with patients who did not receive any adjuvant therapy (P=0.037).

Conclusion Our prediction model has a good performance in predicting cancer-specific survival of early-stage UPSC patients and contributes to guide clinical treatment decision.

Disclosure Nothing to disclose

Statistics from

Request Permissions

If you wish to reuse any or all of this article please use the link below which will take you to the Copyright Clearance Center’s RightsLink service. You will be able to get a quick price and instant permission to reuse the content in many different ways.